AI-Powered Solution to Predict Extreme Weather Patterns and Help Farmers Adapt to Climate Change

November 9, 2023

In this article, we will explore how agricultural research institutes and Omdena collaborated to create AI-powered solutions to predict extreme weather patterns. These solutions help farmers adapt to climate change, leading to a 15% increase in crop yields and a 20% reduction in losses.

Challenge

Climate change presents a significant and multifaceted challenge for the agricultural community. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as prolonged droughts, devastating floods, and scorching heat waves, pose a dire threat to crops, livestock, and ultimately, farm incomes. These events can disrupt planting and harvesting schedules, reduce crop yields, and lead to widespread crop failure.

Farmers are in dire need of reliable information and advanced tools to not only predict and prepare for these extreme weather occurrences but also build long-term resilience to the ongoing changes in climate patterns. This ensures the sustainability of their agricultural practices, safeguards food security, and empowers them to thrive in a changing environment.

Solution

To address the challenges posed by extreme weather and climate change for farmers, an agricultural research institute partnered with Omdena to develop a comprehensive AI-powered solution. This solution leverages machine learning to not only predict extreme weather events but also empowers farmers with actionable insights to adapt their practices.

Technical Underpinnings

The core of the solution lies in a multi-layered machine learning approach:

Data Preprocessing and Feature Engineering:
- Historical weather data, including temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind patterns, are collected from various sources (elaborated later).
- Climate models, incorporating future projections and global trends, are integrated.
- Additional relevant data, such as soil characteristics, crop types, and historical yield information, may also be incorporated depending on the specific needs and resources.
- This data undergoes rigorous cleaning, normalization, and transformation processes to ensure its quality and suitability for machine learning algorithms.
Extreme Weather Prediction:
- Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks: These recurrent neural networks excel at capturing temporal dependencies and identifying patterns in sequential data like weather observations. LSTMs are trained on the historical and projected climate data to predict the likelihood and severity of various extreme weather events (e.g., heatwaves, droughts, floods) with lead times suited to agricultural decision-making.
Recommendation Generation:
- Classification algorithms: Based on the predicted weather scenarios and local context, supervised learning algorithms like Support Vector Machines (SVMs) or Random Forests can be employed to classify situations and generate tailored recommendations.
- These recommendations could include:
  - Crop selection: Suggesting alternative crop varieties with higher tolerance to specific weather extremes.
  - Planting and harvesting schedules: Optimizing planting and harvesting times to avoid vulnerable periods and maximize yields.
  - Water management strategies: Recommending irrigation practices that conserve water during droughts or utilize flood control measures to protect crops.

Data Integration and Training

The solution leverages various data sources:
- Historical weather data from weather stations, satellites, and reanalysis datasets.
- Global and regional climate models from reputable institutions.
- On-farm data, if available, including crop types, soil characteristics, and historical yield information.
A robust data integration framework ensures seamless merging of data from diverse sources, addressing potential inconsistencies and formatting variations.
The integrated data is then used to train the machine learning models through supervised learning techniques, where historical data with known outcomes (e.g., successful harvests under specific weather conditions) guides the model to learn and predict future scenarios.

By combining advanced machine learning techniques with comprehensive data integration, this AI-powered solution empowers farmers with crucial insights to navigate the challenges of extreme weather and adapt their practices for long-term resilience and sustainability.

Results

The AI-powered solution has been very successful in helping farmers to adapt to climate change and reduce crop losses. In a field trial, farmers who used the solution reported a 15% increase in crop yields and a 20% reduction in crop losses due to extreme weather events.

AI-Powered Solution to Predict Extreme Weather Patterns and Help Farmers Adapt to Climate Change

Benefits

The AI-powered solution to predict extreme weather patterns and assist farmers in adapting to climate change offers numerous advantages, enhancing agricultural resilience and profitability, including:

Improved Accuracy of Weather Forecasts: Utilizing advanced algorithms and vast datasets, this AI solution significantly enhances the precision of weather predictions. By accurately forecasting weather conditions, farmers can make informed decisions about planting, harvesting, and managing their crops, thereby minimizing the risks associated with unpredictable weather.
Tailored Recommendations on Adapting Farming Practices: The system provides customized advice based on specific farm locations, crop types, and local weather patterns. This may include guidance on the optimal planting dates, suitable crop varieties resistant to expected weather extremes, irrigation management to conserve water during droughts, or strategies to protect crops from flooding. These tailored recommendations help farmers adjust their practices proactively, reducing the potential impact of extreme weather conditions.
Reduced Crop Losses: By implementing the AI-powered system’s recommendations, farmers can significantly decrease the likelihood of crop damage or total loss caused by adverse weather events. Early warnings and adaptive strategies enable farmers to take preventive measures, such as reinforcing structures to withstand high winds or adjusting irrigation schedules in anticipation of drought or excessive rainfall.
Increased Crop Yields: With the aid of precise weather forecasts and adaptation strategies, farmers can optimize growing conditions for their crops. This can lead to more effective use of resources, such as water and fertilizers, and better timing of agricultural activities, all contributing to higher productivity and crop yields even under challenging climate conditions.
Increased Farm Incomes: Higher crop yields, combined with reduced losses from weather-related damages, naturally lead to an increase in farm incomes. By maximizing efficiency and output through AI-guided decisions, farmers can achieve better financial results, contributing to the overall economic stability and growth of the agricultural sector.
Enhanced Resilience to Climate Change: Lastly, this AI solution plays a crucial role in building long-term resilience against the impacts of climate change. By equipping farmers with the knowledge and tools to adapt dynamically to changing weather patterns, it helps ensure sustainable agricultural practices. This not only benefits individual farmers but also supports global food security in the face of increasing climate variability.

Real-World Project: Forecasting Weather With Deep Learning to Improve Weather Forecast Models

In this project, Omdena collaborated with Rebase Energy to enhance the precision of weather forecasts, aiming to support industries such as agriculture with improved predictive models. The initiative focuses on using Rebase’s extensive weather data so that the models can learn to identify patterns and make more accurate predictions about future weather conditions. For the agricultural sector, this helps farmers make timely decisions regarding planting and harvesting, leading to increased yields and decreased waste.

Read more information about the project here.

Lessons Learned

There are a few key lessons that can be learned from this case study:

AI-powered solutions can be very effective in helping farmers to adapt to climate change.
It is important to collect and prepare a large and diverse dataset of historical weather data, climate models, and other relevant data sources in order to train accurate and effective machine learning models.
It is also important to develop models that are interpretable, so that farmers can understand how they work and trust their predictions.
The AI-powered solution should be easy to use for farmers with a variety of skill levels.

Conclusion

The AI-powered solution developed by the agricultural research institute and Omdena is a valuable tool for farmers who are facing the challenges of climate change. The solution can help farmers to improve their accuracy of weather forecasts, adapt their farming practices to mitigate the risks posed by extreme weather, reduce crop losses, increase crop yields, increase farm incomes, and enhance their resilience to climate change.