Using AI to Predict Climate Change and Forced Displacement in Somalia

Background

Millions of people in Somalia face forced displacement due to resource shortages, violent conflicts, and natural disasters like droughts and floods. These challenges disrupt lives, strain resources, and complicate humanitarian efforts. Partnering with the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), Omdena’s global team leveraged AI in climate change prediction to address these issues. This initiative aimed to predict forced displacement and violent conflicts, providing actionable insights to support communities in need effectively.

Objective

The project aimed to:

1. Develop AI-based solutions to predict climate change impacts and forced displacement patterns.
2. Identify critical areas prone to violent conflict and natural disasters.
3. Provide insights to optimize resource allocation for humanitarian efforts.

Approach

To address the challenge, a team of 34 AI experts and data scientists employed advanced machine learning techniques and satellite imagery analysis. The key steps included:

• Supervised Learning Models: Implementing SVM classifiers and random forest classifiers, achieving 99% accuracy in monitoring critical conflict zones.
• Data Visualization: Generating reports that correlated climate anomalies with forced displacement and identified the needs of affected communities.
• Satellite Image Analysis: Leveraging satellite data to analyze environmental changes using the Vegetation Health Index and displacement statistics.

The approach combined AI’s predictive power with data-driven insights, ensuring practical applications for conflict monitoring and humanitarian response.

Results and Impact

The solutions achieved significant outcomes:

• Conflict Monitoring: High-accuracy models identified hotspots of conflict, enabling proactive measures to reduce fatalities and mitigate risks.
• Displacement Insights: Reports provided valuable correlations between climate anomalies and forced displacement, helping organizations better understand and address community needs.
• Environmental Assessment: Satellite analysis revealed environmental degradation linked to forced displacement, guiding targeted interventions.

These innovations empower UNHCR to act faster and more effectively, enhancing support for displaced populations and mitigating the impacts of climate change in Somalia.

Future Implications

The project’s findings open avenues for:

• Policy Development: Informing government and international policies to address displacement and climate change challenges.
• Advanced Research: Encouraging further exploration into the relationship between climate anomalies, conflict, and migration.
• Scalable Solutions: Extending these AI models to other regions facing similar challenges, promoting global resilience to climate change.

Omdena’s work demonstrates how AI to predict climate change can transform humanitarian efforts, ensuring a sustainable future for vulnerable populations.