Impact of Climate Change on Maize Agricultural Yield in Kenya

Challenge Background

Kenya is a nation in East Africa with a rich agricultural heritage that forms the backbone of its economy and culture. Agriculture contributes approximately 33% to the country's GDP and employs about 40% of the total population, with 70% of rural residents depending on it for their livelihoods.

Maize, known locally as "mahindi," is the most important staple crop in Kenya. It's not only a crucial source of nutrition for millions of Kenyans but also deeply intertwined with the country's cultural fabric. Maize is used in traditional dishes like ugali and plays a significant role in various cultural practices and ceremonies.

Historically, Kenya's diverse agro-ecological zones have supported maize cultivation across different regions, from the highlands to the coastal areas. Small-scale farmers produce about 75% of the country's maize, making it vital for both food security and income generation at the grassroots level.

However, in recent years, Kenya has faced significant challenges in maize production:

1. Climate Change: Shifting weather patterns have led to unpredictable rainfall, increased temperatures, and more frequent extreme weather events like droughts and floods. These changes are disrupting traditional planting seasons and affecting crop yields.

2. Environmental Degradation: Soil erosion, deforestation, and loss of biodiversity are impacting the health of agricultural ecosystems.

3. Population Pressure: Rapid population growth is leading to the subdivision of agricultural land, potentially reducing economies of scale in maize production.

4. Economic Factors: Fluctuating market prices for maize and increasing costs of inputs like fertilizers and seeds are affecting farmers' ability to maintain profitable production.

5. Pests and Diseases: Changing climate conditions are altering the distribution and intensity of crop pests and diseases, posing new threats to maize crops.

The intersection of these factors, particularly the looming threat of climate change, puts Kenya's food security and the livelihoods of millions of farmers at risk. There's an urgent need to understand how these changing conditions, especially climate variables, will impact maize yields in the coming years.

This project aims to address this critical need by leveraging machine learning techniques. By developing predictive models that can forecast maize yields based on climate and other relevant variables, we hope to provide farmers, policymakers, and researchers with valuable tools to adapt to changing conditions, optimize resource allocation, and ensure the resilience of Kenya's crucial maize sector in the face of climate change.

The Problem

The problem we aim to address is the potential decrease in maize yield due to climate change, which could have severe consequences for food security, economic stability, and the well-being of Kenyan farmers and communities.

Goal of the Project

• Functional AI models for predicting maize yield
• Comprehensive documentation of the methodology, including data sources, preprocessing steps, and model architecture
• A final report summarizing the project, results, and potential applications
• A presentation demonstrating the model's capabilities and potential impact on agricultural planning and climate change adaptation in Kenya

Project Timeline

What you'll learn

Learn the impact of AI research in agriculture and climate change