Predicting the Unemployment Rate in Kenya

Local Chapter Machakos, Kenya

Coordinated byKenya ,

Status: Ongoing

Project background.

Unemployment is a critical socio-economic challenge faced by many countries worldwide, and Kenya is no exception. As a developing nation in East Africa, Kenya’s unemployment rate has been a subject of concern for policymakers, economists, and citizens alike. This project aims to provide an in-depth background on the unemployment rate in Kenya, analyzing its causes, implications, and potential solutions.

Kenya, located in East Africa, has experienced significant economic growth in recent decades, driven by sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services. Despite these positive trends, unemployment has remained a persistent challenge, especially among the youth and urban populations.

Understanding the underlying reasons for this issue is crucial for devising effective policies that promote job creation and sustainable economic development. As of the latest available data (up to September 2021), Kenya’s unemployment rate stood at approximately 8.4%.

However, it is essential to note that this figure does not capture the full extent of the problem, as it excludes underemployment and disguised unemployment, prevalent in the informal sector, which constitutes a significant portion of Kenya’s economy.

The problem.

The unemployment rate in Kenya has been a persistent challenge, particularly among the youth and urban populations, despite the country’s economic growth in recent years. This project aims to investigate the underlying factors contributing to the high unemployment rate in Kenya, analyze historical trends, and identify key drivers that can inform effective policies and interventions to promote job creation and economic development.

Some of the key questions to ask while doing this project will be:

1. What is the current unemployment rate in Kenya, and how has it evolved over the past decade or more?
2. What demographic groups are most affected by unemployment, and what are their specific challenges in the job market?
3. How do economic factors, such as GDP growth, inflation, and investment patterns influence the unemployment rate in Kenya?
4. What is the relationship between educational attainment and employment opportunities in Kenya?
5. Are there significant regional disparities in unemployment rates across different counties and regions in Kenya?
6. Can we identify potential predictors of unemployment and develop predictive models to understand future trends?

The primary objective of this project is to gain a comprehensive understanding of the unemployment rate in Kenya, analyzing its trends, causes, and effects. By leveraging data analysis, statistical modeling, and data visualization techniques, I aim to provide actionable insights to inform evidence-based policies and initiatives that can mitigate unemployment, enhance workforce participation, and create a conducive environment for economic prosperity in Kenya.

Project goals.

1. Analyse historical unemployment trends in Kenya over the past decade or more.  2. Identify the demographic characteristics most affected by unemployment.  3. Investigate the influence of economic factors, such as GDP growth and inflation, on unemployment rates.  4. Examine the relationship between education levels and employment opportunities. e. Explore regional disparities in unemployment across different counties or regions in Kenya.

Project plan.

  • Week 1

    Data Collection

  • Week 2

    Data preprocessing and cleaning

  • Week 3


  • Week 4

    Feature engineering and selection

  • Week 5

    Model development

  • Week 6

    Model evaluation

  • Week 7

    Model integration

  • Week 8

    Model deployment

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